Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074): Huawei cooperates to open up another field of energy storage
Matters: On March 29, 2019, the company confirmed on the Interactive Exchange platform of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to cooperate with Huawei in the field of lithium battery energy storage. The specific cooperation situation and details have not yet appeared.
Guoxin Electric’s new perspective: 1) Cost and performance are dominant, and the application scenario of lithium iron phosphate energy storage battery is open.
2) The retinal electrochemical 西安耍耍网 energy storage market is still in its infancy, with a small scale and high growth rate.
3) There is huge room for the replacement and increment of the base station energy storage market, and the leading companies in power batteries will benefit.
4) The peak and frequency regulation market brings demand for energy storage batteries exceeding 30GW.
5) The company has an early layout of the energy storage field and has extensive experience.
6) Risk reminder: Double points policy, market demand brought by new models, product price decline, new customer development, progress in issuing convertible bonds, and improvement in operating capacity are less than expected.
Investment suggestion: In the field of energy storage, the company has confirmed cooperation with Huawei in the field of energy storage. We believe that the current electrochemical energy storage market is in the initial stage of rapid growth. Lithium iron phosphate batteries will start in the field of energy storage based on cost and performance advantages.For large-scale applications, the company, as a leading company of lithium iron phosphate power battery, is expected to benefit from the explosion of markets such as communication base stations and peak frequency modulation; in the field of power batteries, compensating for high energy density gate organisms is the advantage of ternary batteries in a wide range of applications.Under the pressure of the substantial subsidy of the new subsidy policy, car companies have gradually taken the lead in achieving the ternary replacement of lithium iron phosphate on some price-sensitive models, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has been based on lithium iron phosphate and has been focusing on the energy density of monomers.The highest in the world is the first to exceed 190 Wh / kg, which is expected to benefit from the rescheduling of iron and lithium; gradually the company is also very effective in expanding production capacity and large customers.
Continue to maintain the Air Force’s profit forecast. It is expected to return to its mother’s net profit in 19-20.
3.6 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
09 yuan, corresponding to the current PE 19.
2x, maintain “Buy” rating.
Comment: Cost and performance dominate. Lithium iron phosphate energy storage battery application scenario opens. With the development of lithium battery technology, the cost has dropped and the energy storage market has started to increase. The lithium iron phosphate energy storage battery application scenario has officially opened since 2018.In the subdivisions such as base station energy storage, standby power, grid or user-side energy storage, the application of lithium iron phosphate batteries is being started on a large scale.
In the field of base station energy storage, for a long time, the tower company’s base station backup power supply has mainly used lead-acid batteries. About 10 lead-acid batteries are purchased each year. However, lead-acid batteries have shortcomings, low performance, and contain a large amount of heavy metal lead.Improper will cause secondary pollution to the environment.
Iron Tower has stopped the procurement of lead-acid batteries and unified procurement of ladder batteries in 2018. By the end of 2018, approximately 120,000 base stations have been used in approximately 120,000 base stations in 31 provinces and cities nationwide.
5GWh, replacing lead-acid batteries by about 4.
5 Initially, these are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In the field of power grid and user energy storage, since 2018, several grid-side energy storage demonstration operation projects in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, Pinggao, Henan, and Changsha, Hunan have been successively tendered, all of which are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Compared with traditional lead-acid batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have advantages in terms of safety, substitution, unit capacity, energy density, and environmental protection, and their complementarity and cost advantages with ternary batteries are more suitable for the previous general power grid.The main market environment for base station energy storage.
According to estimates, the current average price of lithium iron phosphate batteries is less than 1.
0 yuan / Wh, the lithium battery accounts for about 60% of the cost of the energy storage system. Based on the 3000-5000 cycle life calculation, the cost of energy storage has dropped to zero.
5 yuan, while the average commercial peak-to-valley electricity price difference for the consumer side in Guangdong is 0.
Compared with 86 yuan / degree, energy storage is already economical on the user side.